Spatio-temporal rainfall trends in southwest Western Australia (6606)
Rainfall across
southwest Western Australia (SWWA) has declined markedly over the past five decades,
with noticeably drier winter conditions in the wettest months of the year (May
to July). The spatial extent and intensity of the decline has accelerated rapidly
since 2000. This has had serious implications for water resources and forest management,
biodiversity and agricultural productivity in the north-eastern wheatbelt. It
is therefore important to establish robust and reliable methods for describing rainfall
variability and trends in space-time as their application can inform decision-making
processes. Regression analysis is particularly useful in this context, and two
approaches are considered here. First, a nonparametric representation of the
trend, within the framework of generalized additive models, is used to
investigate average rainfall changes in both time and space. This approach
allows for inter-site dependence and therefore ensures valid statistical
inference. Second, quantile regression is used to study changes in different aspects
of the rainfall distribution. This approach offers more flexibility in
modelling the data, and facilitates investigation of changes in the tails of
the rainfall distribution. The proposed procedures are appealing to practitioners,
as they do not involve the fitting of complicated spatio-temporal models, are
computationally convenient to work with, and provide important information
about changes in extremes as well as means. When applied to trends in SWWA
winter rainfall, the broad conclusion is that declines in the tails of the
distribution are consistent with those in the main body throughout the region.
This in itself suggests that the underlying mechanisms are likely to be
associated with an overall reduction in moisture availability rather than, for
example, a shift towards different types of rainfall which would lead to
differential trends at different quantiles of the distribution.