Seasonal forecasting in the Pacific: the role of traditional knowledge — ASN Events

Seasonal forecasting in the Pacific: the role of traditional knowledge (6538)

Lynda Chambers 1 , Karen Bennett 1 , Roan Plotz 1 , David J Martin 1
  1. Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation and monitoring of meteorological, astronomical and biological indicators (e.g. behavior of plants and animals). Built over many generations, these knowledge systems are adapted to local conditions to cope with a highly variable and vulnerable environment. Traditional climate knowledge systems continue to influence all aspects of modern Pacific livelihoods from agricultural productivity to disaster response and recovery. In recent years, alternative forecasting methods have been promoted by national meteorological services based on statistical and dynamical modelling of the climate system. However, in some locations, uptake of these ‘new’ methods is low with locals continuing to use traditional forecasts for many reasons including inadequate access to the new forecasts, insufficient trust in new forecasting methods or historical usefulness of traditional forecasts. Enabling adaptation to changing seasonal climatic conditions in the Pacific requires improved understanding of how traditional forecasting methods compare to those based on climate models. Building on global experiences with traditional seasonal forecasting we develop, in partnership with Pacific Island national meteorological services, a methodology for the Pacific region for integrating seasonal forecasts based on traditional methods with those currently used by national meteorological services. This approach to forecasting has the potential to improve the accuracy and utility of local forecasts as well as ensuring the communication of climate information is in a locally relevant context to increase adaptive capacity

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