Detection and attribution of temperature and rainfall changes using CMIP5 models over the tropical Pacific — ASN Events
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Detection and attribution of temperature and rainfall changes using CMIP5 models over the tropical Pacific (7700)

Guomin Wang 1 2 , Scott Power 1 2 , Simon McGree 3 , Christine Chung 1 2
  1. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne
  2. Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program, Melbourne
  3. National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne

In this study we examine the extent to which human activity – through changes in the earth’s radiative balance, have affected surface temperature and precipitation over the tropical Pacific. We use recently released observational data from 15 Pacific island nations and output from CMIP5 climate models.

By comparing Pacific island station data, the observational based grid datasets and various CMIP5 model experiment results, it is found that the surface air temperature averaged over the tropical Pacific has increased over the past 50 years, and this increase is above the level arising from the climate’s natural internal variability. The rise is consistent with warming simulated in response to anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols and other gases in the atmosphere.

Progress on detection and attribution of precipitation changes will be reported. Projections of both temperature and rainfall for the 21st Century for the tropical Pacific region will also be presented.

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