Climate Change Projections for Tropical Australia — ASN Events

Climate Change Projections for Tropical Australia (7894)

Aurel Moise 1 , Kathleen McInnes 2
  1. Bureau of meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia
  2. Marine and Atmospheric Research, CSIRO, Aspendale, VIC, Australia

As part of a major project to understand the potential changes to climate and their impact on indigenous values, ecosystem services and economic activities within the Natural Resource Management regions of Australia, a major two year project is underway to develop projections and assess the impacts of future changes to the climate system. This talk will focus on the findings for the Monsoonal North and Wet Tropics NRM regions which together span northern Australia. These regions together include significant natural assets such as the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Areas, Kakadu National Park, regions under traditional ownership such as the Torres Strait Islands, and also derive economic benefits from industries including mining, sugar cane farming, grazing and tourism.

This talk will provide new regional climate projections for the NRM Monsoonal North and Wet Tropics cluster regions based on global climate simulations of the CMIP5 model archive. Projections of future change are made for a range of simulated variables and derived variables such as, drought, runoff, warm spells and extreme rainfall. Projections are provided for the 2030-2049 and 2080-99 periods following the mid-range emission scenario RCP4.5 and the high-emission scenario RCP8.5.