More extreme swings of the South Pacific Convergence Zone due to greenhouse warming — ASN Events

More extreme swings of the South Pacific Convergence Zone due to greenhouse warming (7882)

Simon Borlace 1 , Wenju Cai 1 , Matthieu Lengaigne 2 , Matt Collins 3 , Tim Cowan 1 , Michael J McPhaden 4 , Axel Timmermann 5 , Scott Power 6 , Josephine Brown 6 , Christophe Menkes 7 , Arona Ngari 8 , Emmanuel M Vincent 2 , Matthew J Widlansky 5
  1. CSIRO, Aspendale, VIC, Australia
  2. Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: , Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), IRD/UPMC/CNRS/MNHN, Paris, France
  3. University of Exeter, Exter, UK
  4. NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA
  5. University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
  6. Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
  7. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Noumea, New Caledonia
  8. Meteorological Service, Avarua, Rarotonga, Cook Islands

The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere's most expansive and persistent rain band, extending from the equatorial western Pacific southeastward toward French Polynesia. Due to its strong rainfall gradient, a small displacement in the SPCZ's position causes drastic changes to hydroclimatic conditions and the frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones experienced by vulnerable island countries in the region. The SPCZ position varies from its climatological mean location with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), moving a few degrees northward during moderate El Niño events and southward during La Niña events. During strong El Niño events, however, the SPCZ undergoes an extreme swing of up to 10 degrees to the equator and collapses to a more zonally oriented structure with commensurately severe impacts. Understanding changes in the characteristics of the SPCZ in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we show climate modelling evidence for a near doubling in the occurrences of zonal SPCZ events from 1891-1990 to 1991-2090 in response to greenhouse warming, even in the absence of a consensus on how itself ENSO will change. We estimate the increase in zonal SPCZ events from an aggregation of the climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5) multi-model database that are able to simulate such events. The change is caused by a projected enhanced equatorial warming in the Pacific and may lead to more frequent occurrences of extreme events across the Pacific Island nations most affected by zonal SPCZ events.