A near-global modified Climate Extremes Index for observations and global climate models (6684)
Monitoring variations of climate extremes is very important due to the severe impacts that are often associated with observed extremes. For the same reason, projections of climate extremes based on simulations from climate models are needed to assess possible future risks related to changes in occurrence of extremes. A new modified Climate Extremes Index calculated from standard indices of daily temperature and rainfall extremes (the so-called ETCCDI indices) is introduced here. This new index is based on the modified Climate Extremes Index introduced by Gallant and Karoly (2010) and the original Climate Extremes Index introduced by Karl et al (1996). The modified Climate Extremes Index consists of five components representing temperature, precipitation and moisture extremes. It is designed to measure the percentage area affected by those extremes. The construction of a new index based on standard indices has the advantages of being available for all regions where data availability permits, and from climate models. A preliminary analysis of this new modified Climate Extremes Index will be presented for observations and for simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, Taylor et al. 2012). The primary focus will be on comparing results from the CMIP5 historical experiment with observed variations to assess the likely contributions of internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change to changes in temperature and rainfall extremes over the last fifty years.
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- Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 93, 485–498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.