Near and long-term projections of climate change — ASN Events

Near and long-term projections of climate change (10365)

Julie Arblaster 1
  1. CAWCR, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, 3000, Australia

Understanding, quantifying and communicating future climate projections is one of the most important challenges for climate scientists. This talk will provide an overview of the two projections chapters from the IPCC AR5 Working Group I report. Projected changes in the climate system for the next few decades and beyond are, for the most part, made with comprehensive earth system models, since extrapolations from past trends or comparison with previous climates are unlikely to be a good representation of the future.

The spread in projections stems from both the variety of socio-economic pathways that could be followed in the future and the range of modelled climate responses to the resulting emissions. Natural or internal processes in the climate system canal so influence future change, particularly at small spatial scales and short timeframes.

Key messages from the projections chapters will be highlighted, encompassing changes in temperature, the water cycle, snow and ice, the ocean and the carbon cycle. The methods chosen to present the climate model output will be described, including the comprehensive Atlas on Global and Regional Projections.